Shenzhen realty 深圳房产

The victory of common people - ‘90 square meters effect’ Ten guess

‘State of the six’ and its series of initiatives to control the impact of China’s real estate is a profound and long. This is particularly in the areas of’90 square meters accounted for 70% of the following units’ case, and even some developers who will be affected the life and death - some experts expected, and some real estate development companies may opt-out. In fact, nothing out of it to China’s current scale of real estate development is to build a house for two years do not have nothing, as the 80’s in general, the welfare housing distribution, nothing is real estate (with a small amount of real estate sales), national GDP growth rate is still 10% a few. ‘90 Square effect ‘will be the future for a considerable period of mainstream topic. Here may wish to make the following ten guess, for your reference.

a part of moving non-residential real estate developers. They have been accustomed to higher psychological expected to make money, perhaps less dismissive of 90m2. Commercial real estate, office buildings, park real estate (industrial, scientific and technological real estate), logistics, real estate, tourism, real estate, hotels, real estate, urban land  operators, such as might be their choice.

Second, the rise in unit price. Large type of property supply and demand reduction continued to rise (after all, can not meet the 90m2 and over after a well-off families, higher income groups still hope to live in some liberal). Due to the low proportion of large units, even if the price higher, the average house prices will not affect too much, it may form a ’stealth effect’ - high, those who are willing to hook indifferent manner (small and medium-sized units Rush) blase, hard into contradiction focus. Of course, the state still ‘killer warming’ - collection of special consumption tax (such as a different type of differential tax on property tax or other tax), as against imports of luxury cars in general. Overall, however, is now the hands of those who have a large size of property, in the long run can be relieved.

Third, small and medium-size competition. Statistics show that, as modified by the New Deal type, only Beijing, Shenzhen and other major cities in the current standards, set to increase housing supply more than 50%. It is conceivable that small and medium-sized units will butyl天昏地暗, the kind of ‘鸡犬to ascend to heaven,’ stop the pattern than the quality, than the units, more than decoration, than the price, marketing … … the property market than in a strong external force to recover a considerable portion of its original face. ‘Housing slave who’ may stretch Diophrys, in low-income home buyers is expected to significantly ease the pressure.

four small and medium-sized rental units continued to drop. Due to sharp increase in supply, with the exception of a small number of core areas, most small and medium-sized lots declining balance of the rental units. Investors would have to be cautious, or lower the rent collection expectations.

five, living in China form a revolutionary change will occur. Responsible person of the Ministry of Construction has made it clear that it is impossible for China to choose the American model, that is, low-density living patterns HOUSE. So what do we choose? The largest may be the ‘Japanese model’, ‘Hong Kong model’ (such as Shenzhen, Hong Kong has obvious traces). It is said that Vanke has sent representatives to Japan to study the design of 90m2 units below. In Japan, in Hong Kong, 100m2 is luxurious.

six, currently in full swing movement of the rural home, the market movement was being challenged. According to its original ideals, live in some far, you can live in some relief. Now most of them are the following 90m2, simply to live in town, at least a suburban junction. Large developers get to be curbed enthusiasm. Of course, in orbit after a comprehensive transportation network, but also the birth of a new satellite town. But from Japan, Hong Kong’s circumstances, these satellite is high-density, high-volume rate, the land-efficient.

seven or mixed era. In accordance with the ‘Shenzhen Rules’, a single item 7:3, small and medium-sized units with large units coexist. Was relatively clear and the non-rich rich area of the dividing line between areas, in some cities and regions has been fuzzy.

eight, two generations of separation. 90m2 following two generations of people who live in apartments, three generations seem cramped, so we may have seen two generations of people living in sub-scenes, and even door-to-door to buy the two suites will become a new trend,若即若离, Maung from God together, do not have a flavor. This was also in line with the sociologist on the Chinese families increasing miniaturization forecasts.

nine, type refinement. An increasing number of real estate as the Japanese Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong people as intensive cultivation, carved units in order to maximize the benefits to enhance its competitiveness. We will see the four-90m2 room二厅(Shenzhen has long been produced) ,60-70m2 of the three-bedroom, 50m2 two-room ,30-40 m2 the Bedroom, 20 m2 one room (Shenzhen smallest one-bedroom for 15 m2) … … a number of refinement, the focus on small and medium-size developers are active in the market and become the property of new forces.

10, real estate New Deal is’ the common people’s victory ‘(a famous economist, language). 90m2 following the prevalence of small and medium-sized units, making China more of the home crowd a younger age, more and more people willingly when ‘Housing slave’, to become有产者, so that by the middle class, white-collar, gray-collar workers, composed of senior blue-collar growing middle class society, so that China’s social strata more quickly toward two small, the middle of ‘橄榄型’ direction. Most people love their work, work hard, and fear of unemployment, dare not easily switch (otherwise there is the danger of default). They would eventually become the backbone of a harmonious society in China.

Chinese version:大户涨价 房奴减压：“庶民胜利”的10大猜想！

庶民的胜利——‘九十平方米效应’的十大猜想

‘国六条’及其系列调控举措对中国房地产的影响是深刻而久远的。这其中尤以‘90平米以下户型占70%’为甚，甚至会影响一些地产商的生死——有专家预计，部分地产开发企业可能选择退出。其实退出也没什么，以中国目前的房地产开发规模，就是两年不盖房子也没什么，如同80年代一般，福利分房，没有什么商品房（有少量外销商品房），国家GDP仍然增幅百分之十几。‘90平米效应’将是今后相当一个时期的主流话题。这里不妨作出如下十大猜想，供大家参考。

一、部分开发商转战非住宅地产。他们已习惯于心理预期较高地赚钱，也许对90m2以下不屑一顾。商业地产、写字楼、园区地产（工业、科技地产）、物流地产、旅游地产、酒店地产、城市土地运营商等可能是他们的选择。

二、大户型价位上升。大户型物业供应量减少而需求量持续上升（毕竟90m2不能满足后小康及以上家庭的需求，较高收入群体还是希望住得宽松一些）。由于大户型比例低，即使价位较高，也不会对平均房价影响太大，所以可能形成‘隐身效应’——高高在上、愿者上钩、隔岸观火（中小户型火拼）偷着乐，难成矛盾的焦点。当然，国家还有‘杀手暧’——征收特别消费税（如以不同户型级差征收物业税或其它税），如同对付进口豪华车一般。不过，总的来说，现在手中拥有大户型物业者，长远来看仍可宽心。

三、中小户型竞争加剧。一项统计表明，如按新政作修改户型，仅以北京、深圳等大城市目前的水准，住宅供应套可增加50%以上。可以想见，中小户型会杀得天昏地暗，那种‘鸡犬升天’的格局休矣，比品质、比户型、比装修、比价格、比营销……楼市在强大的外力作用下恢复了它相当一部分的本来面目。‘房奴们’也许会舒展双眉，中低收入阶层的置业压力有望明显缓解。

四、中小户型租金持续下降。由于供应量激增，除少数核心区域外，多数地段中小户型租金呈下降均势。投资者须谨慎，或降低收租期望值。

五、中国居住形态将发生革命性变化。建设部负责人已明确表示，中国不可能选择美国模式，即低密度HOUSE的居住模式。那么我们选择什么呢？最大的可能是‘日本模式’、‘香港模式’（如深圳就有明显的香港痕迹）。据说，万科已派人去日本学习90m2以下的户型设计。在日本，在香港，100m2已属豪宅。

六、目前如火如荼的郊居运动、大盘运动受到挑战。按原来的理想，住得远一些，可以住得宽一些。现在大部分都是90m2以下，干脆住城里，起码也是城郊结合部。开发商大片拿地的热情受到遏制。当然，在轨道交通网完备后，还会诞生新的卫星城。不过从日本、香港的情形看，这些卫星城也是高密度、高容积率、节能省地型的。

七、混居时代来临。按照‘深圳细则’，单个项目7:3，中小户型与大户型共存。原本较为清晰的富人区与非富人区的分野，在一些城市和区域被模糊化了。

八、两代人分居。90m2以下户型住两代人、三代人显得局促，所以我们可能不得不看到两代人分居住的场景，甚至买门对门两套房会成为新潮流，若即若离，貌离神合，别有一番风味。这倒也符合社会学家关于中国家庭越来越小型化的预测。

九、户型精致化。越来越多的地产商会像日本人、香港人那样精耕细作，精雕户型，以求效益最大化，提升竞争力。我们将看到90m2的四房二厅（深圳早就出品），60-70m2的三房，50m2的两房，30-40 m2的一房一厅，20 m2的一房（深圳最小的一房为15 m2）……一批精细化的、专注于中小户型的开发商活跃于坊间，成为地产新势力。

十、地产新政是‘庶民的胜利’（一位著名经济学家语）。90m2以下中小户型的盛行，使中国的置业人群更加低龄化，越来越多的人甘心当‘房奴’，成为有产者，使由中产、白领、灰领、高级蓝领等组成的社会中间阶层日益壮大，使中国社会阶层更快地朝着两头小、中间大的‘橄榄型’方向发展。人们大多数敬业爱岗，努力工作，害怕失业，不敢轻易跳槽（否则有断供之危）。他们最终成为建设中国和谐社会的中坚力量。