Recession in the U.S. property market crisis Subordinated Debt crisis warning China Housing insects

Recently, a by the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis caused by the storm are sweeping across the U.S., EU and Japan, the world’s major financial markets, on the 9th world’s major stock market drop. Subordinated Debt crisis in the United States stems from the excessive expansion of the real estate market and a large amount of real estate loans. China’s real estate speculators are concerned, but also “Sheng City of crisis,” guard against real estate speculation contains risks.


Wall Street downturn, a decline in investor sentiment.

[crisis]

recession in the U.S. property market crisis

US meeting grade debt crisis has become the recent focus of attention of global investors. Subordinated Debt refers to the secondary housing mortgage-backed bonds, which is part of credit to borrowers with poor mortgage applications. The so-called subprime mortgages, as opposed to quality in terms of mortgage loans. U.S. real estate lending system which has been divided into three categories: high-quality mortgage market, subprime lending market, subprime loan market.

from the “9.11″, the United States in order to stimulate economic growth, lower interest rates 13 consecutive times, inspired by the real estate market began the rapid expansion of popular real estate investment. U.S. average house prices in 2003 -2006 years or four years more than 50% in 1995 -2006 in prices more than doubled. Driven by interests, some income is not high, have an adverse credit history also apply for loans to buy a house.

bank loans in order to obtain higher interest rates, lowering the threshold for housing loans. Even if not from the loan borrowers can also sell their houses, as a result of rapidly rising housing prices, real estate and banks are still profitable. In this way, the sub-loans and Subordinated Debt, like a snowball as the size of rapid expansion. But no one expected the end of last year the U.S. real estate market started to decline since the third quarter of last year house prices also fell more than 10%. Falling house prices, real estate interests of the chain was broken and not loans, the sale of real estate is facing the loss of the beginning of sub-loan risk exposure.

analysts think that with the United States consecutive rate hike, and the beginning of 2004 the United States 17th consecutive rate hike, loan interest rates, making the costs of real estate all the way up. Slowdown in economic growth also affected the real estate market.

[warning China]

China real estate speculators who “Sheng City of crisis”

This caused a hubbub of the crisis, the interests of damage is not only a global capital market investors. As the real estate prices fall too quickly, the United States last year entered the real estate market basically all losses. Even in 2005 and the previous real estate, and taking into account more than 5% of U.S. interest rates, the cost of capital is also high. Moreover, the real estate market recession, sales decline in real estate speculators who are affecting the future earnings, real estate values may continue to “shrink.”

such circumstances China’s real estate investors should not be too unfamiliar. In 2005 Shanghai’s real estate prices rose more than two years, many real estate speculators are still blindly “into the market.” The subsequent introduction of regulation and control policies, Shanghai took the lead in house prices slump, housing transactions in Shanghai in June average price of 1426 yuan has Down / square meters. Some real estate speculators who said, “watched a down payment or not. “

Despite the current overall housing prices in China are still all the way up, do not see signs of decline, but real estate speculators, especially those who can not guard against real estate loans. Subordinated Debt before the crisis to the United States did not sign, real estate sales last year of prosperity, all of a sudden crisis spread. Once the loss of market confidence, an instant breakdown of the bubble, prices fell rapidly.

and medium-sized cities in addition to housing prices, a number of small cities and towns have begun to surge in housing prices. However, a large number of vacant housing phenomenon has existed in many places. At present, China’s real estate prices in the end how much “bubble” still can not infer. However, any commodity prices are up and down the.

China has entered a cycle of interest rate increases, the central bank last year’s five interest rate increases also raise lending rates. In particular, to early next year, banks have begun the implementation of the new lending rates, interest rates three times this year released a one-time, some real estate speculators who will be the first to raise borrowing costs 0.46 percent. At present, organizations are expected to raise interest rates will continue.

little effect on China’s economy

investment bank Citigroup issued a report that the subprime mortgage little effect on China’s economy, optimistic about the prospects for Chinese stocks . Citigroup pointed out that the U.S. subprime mortgage issues a limited impact on China’s economy, its economic growth depends primarily on domestic factors. Citigroup said that continue to be optimistic about Chinese stocks will benefit from the improved prospects for corporate profits is expected to individual real estate stocks, financial stocks, aviation and shipping shares, etc. will have good potential increases. And mobile telecommunications operators and heavyweights also worth absorbing.

In addition, the credit rating agencies Standard & Poor’s chief economist, said戴维维斯, worried that the U.S. subprime mortgage market transactions, as well as the problems associated with the stock market and other financial derivatives This caused foreign investors to sell worried that with the subprime mortgage transaction-related stocks, and consider the current U.S. dollar assets to buy stocks to support the wisdom. This market sentiment will definitely affect the currency market, the dollar remained low. He predicted that the future global financial and capital markets will enter a period of intense turbulence.

At the same time, Davis also believes that, despite the subprime mortgage on the international capital and financial markets have a certain impact, but triggered a global financial crisis is unlikely. However, he expects subprime mortgage crisis on financial markets in the short term it will not disappear. Davis said that this issue can be controlled in a certain scope. For the impact of the real estate market may be nearing an end, the next few months will be able to bottom. However, the impact of the stock market may have reached its peak next year, and may even be extended to 2009.

[affected by the global]

multinational fund the closure or suspension of business

along with the U.S. sub - mortgage market crisis, first of all to face the challenge is, as suggested by subprime mortgage lending business institutions. Since early this year, many subprime mortgage companies suffer serious losses, and even forced to file for bankruptcy protection, including the United States’s second-largest subprime mortgage lenders - New Century Financial Corporation. At the same time, lending institutions often subprime mortgage contracts will also be packaged into a financial investment products sold to investment funds, so as the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis intensified, some of these investment products to buy the United States and the European Investment Fund been hit hard.

5th of this month, the fifth-largest U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns, announced by the U.S. subprime mortgage market dragged down the crisis, the company’s collapse of two funds, investment losses were as high as 1.5 billion U.S. dollars . One day after the tenth largest U.S. mortgage lenders - the United States mortgage investment company formally apply to the court for bankruptcy protection, indicating that the U.S. mortgage default phenomenon has spread to a higher credit rating of customers. In addition, the European market is also difficult to escape the crisis. BNP Paribas announced the suspension on the 9th set foot in its three U.S. subprime mortgage business fund transactions, while Germany is also a number of fund companies have recently announced the suspension of the redemption business, investors in order to avoid “over-redemption” of the have a negative impact on the Fund’s investments.

more serious is that as the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis extended to other financial sector, banks generally choose to raise lending rates and reducing the number of loans, with the result that the world’s major financial markets appear vague lack of liquidity crisis. 9, in Paris, France, the bank announced the suspension of its three funds after the transaction, investors in the credit market worries intensified, resulting in Europe and the U.S. stock market fell sharply.

turbulence is still controllable range of

by the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis, stock markets around the world have tumbled in recent days. U.S. stock market shocks over the past few days also坐卧不宁U.S. President George W. Bush. On the 10th, White House spokesman said Bush and his aides are closely watching the stock market direction. “I assured the president’s many advisers are paying closer attention to (financial) market activities, to ensure the timely introduction of policies to maintain strong growth in the U.S. economy,” White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said, “The President himself has in the understanding of the situation at any time. “Perino said, Bush has repeatedly stressed that” the U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid. “

the same day, the International Monetary Fund to encourage investors that the world financial market turmoil in the past few days, “is still controllable range.” At the same time, the credit market crisis will not be “forced to stop the” World economic growth. IMF spokesman Masood Ahmed said: “Although the situation has not yet stabilized, but we still firmly believe that the risk of the credit market to reassess the overall situation brought about by the impact of not getting out of control. To support global economic growth still exist, the reconstruction of the credit market order is a healthy development process. “


central banks around the world to save the city of more than 3000 billion

by the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis, all regions of the world major stock markets Recently, the general slump. The face of crisis, central banks around the 9 and 10 have injected huge amounts of money to the financial system, staged a joint rescue drama. Reuters statistics show that central banks around the world within 48 hours of total capital injection of more than 326.2 billion U.S. dollars. However, the world’s major stock markets closed on the 10th shows that the U.S. stock market in the United States Federal Reserve Board intervention clearly bottomed, but European stock markets remained unabated decline.

United States: three-day injection

the Federal Reserve before the market opens on the 10th in a statement that will take all necessary measures to avoid the stock market out of control, including the provision of “the necessary reserves” increase the liquidity of financial markets, and ensure proper functioning of the market. The statement said: “The Fed is injecting funds in order to promote the orderly operation of financial markets. “This is the Federal Reserve over the past 20 years the third release” protection “of the statement. This the first time October 20, 1987 hit Wall Street’s “Black Monday”, the day the Dow Jones industrial average index of all-day drop of 23%. For the second time in 2001 “9.11″ terrorist attacks.

the development of the situation, as the statement said, the Fed injected three times in a row the same day, amounting to 38 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. Federal Reserve on the 9th of financial markets has injected 24 billion U.S. dollars of funds. Inject liquidity into the sum of two days to reach 62 billion U.S. dollars. “fresh blood” into the stock market impact of the obvious, the New York stock market closed on the 10th showed a mixed trend, and the slow decline. Compared with the previous session the Dow fell 31.14 points, or 0.23 percent.

Europe: the injection of billions of

compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank sell more “generous.” European Central Bank on the 9th record euro-zone banking system to inject 94.8 billion euros (about 129.9 billion U.S. dollars). But this did not calm down the stock market turbulence. London stock market on the 10th after the opening bell, financial and banking stocks continue to fall. London stock market, “Financial Times” 100 Share Index fell 186.8 points, fell to 6084.4 points, in March this year, the lowest point since the middle. The morning closing time, the Frankfurt DAX-30 stock index fell 1.6 percent, the Paris CAC40 stock index fell 3 percent. Crisis, the European Central Bank announced on the 10th a further injection of 61.05 billion euros (about 83.64 billion U.S. dollars).

the European Central Bank official said that the European Central Bank injected twice aim “to protect the orderly operation of the market”, to ease the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis, the negative impact.

the euro zone central banks have also introduced measures to stabilize financial markets. Swiss National Bank on the 10th the second consecutive day to the stock market to provide low-interest loans. But with the U.S. stock market’s reaction is diametrically opposed to the European major stock markets plummeted on the 10th is still closed, London and Paris the main stock index recorded a decrease of more than 3%. Analysts believe that the unabated decline in European markets because the acts of the European Central Bank injected a temporary solution, but the decision of the central bank intervention in the stock market instead of reducing the confidence of the market.

the Asia-Pacific: to join the global action

the Asia-Pacific region’s financial markets has not escaped the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis brought about by a nightmare, the main stock market After opening on the 10th or a sound. To deal with the crisis, the Japanese central bank the Bank of Japan on the 10th to the financial system for emergency injection of ¥ 1,000,000,000,000 (about 8.5 billion U.S. dollars) to ease the credit crunch. Australia’s central bank the Reserve Bank of Australia on the 10th injection of 4.95 billion dollar…

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