Shenzhen realty 深圳房产

under the National Development and Reform Commission and National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 12th of the latest survey data show that in August, the Shenzhen real estate market continued to maintain a high-speed rising trend, in which single-handedly housing prices rose 17.6% year-on-year, second-hand residential price year-on-year increase of 22%, to continue leading the national real estate market. This news caused a public opinion that is in an uproar because the data with the public often associated media recently saw the “Shenzhen property market downturn in August,” the relevant reports, there seems to be greater access, could come soon, perhaps? AP reporter interviewed yesterday Research Department of the property market experts.

statistics vary

National Development and Reform Commission published the survey data, and its authority is no doubt natural, but this judge attempted to mislead the media consumption De, the experts believe that the fair is also missing. First of all, the vast majority of the media data from Shenzhen, a large-scale real estate broker, and the intermediary company based primarily on their own transactions carried out to determine, for example, according to Midland Realty statistics, in August an average price of second-hand residential Shenzhen 17,011 yuan / square meters, Central than a decline of about 2.5 percent more than in June fell by 6 percent, from this set of data, the second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen has come to an end the first half of the trend of rising crazy situation, the whole stage in a steadily. Development and Reform Commission data mainly through a sample survey by category and then calculated the weighted average of the above-mentioned, and intermediary company released data on the sources and statistics are not the same caliber, so the result of rounding natural inevitable. Secondly, we should pay attention to, the National Development and Reform Commission announced in August of second-hand residential Shenzhen rose 22 percent year-on-year data is, rather than ring than data from the National Development and Reform Commission of the Central than the data, secondary residential Shenzhen in August rose 1.7 percent ring than with the Shenzhen intermediary companies released data access is not too great. In addition, in August of second-hand housing market in Shenzhen light overall transaction, the city’s secondary residential volume decrease by about 5 into about the overall trading volume in the market lower, through the sample survey data obtained by the transactions and the transaction structure of the more large, it is difficult to reflect the true market as a whole changes, even when the market trend and a departure from the findings will not surprise me. For consumers, whether it is the intermediary of the transaction data or the National Development and Reform Commission of the survey data, are only as a reference for purchase only, can not be considered to determine the market the only yardstick.

indicators of both economic overheating red

the experts said, in fact, the argument Development and Reform Commission and intermediary companies who have not much more accurate practical significance, but the National Development and Reform Commission released any data will not be pointless, particularly in the housing market in Shenzhen is now a dilemma when such a release is destined to rise to numerous controversial data, warning that the policy significance of thought-provoking.

According to the 11th National Bureau of Statistics released the latest CPI statistics, in August the consumer price index for another record high, up 6.5 percent year-on-year. Since the beginning of March this year, CPI index has been 6 months breakthroughs 3 percent warning level, and showing a rising trend to accelerate. Contact Prior to the National Bureau of Statistics released the first half of the 11.5 percent year-on-year GDP growth, reflecting the macroeconomic health of the two major indicators showed a red light at the same time that China signs of overheating the economy as a whole is already quite apparent.

common central bank and the National Bureau of Statistics completed a “national survey bankers” and “entrepreneur survey” shows that Q2 banker confidence index fell sharply, to 36.7 percent of history the lowest level, the entrepreneurs confidence index also dropped to its lowest level in two years.

the second half of the policy threatens to “focus attention” Shenzhen

07 since the first half, the National狼烟four housing market, housing prices in major cities soaring all the way, particularly in Shenzhen, the most eye-catching performance, according to Associated Press, the Research Department of the property market data analysis, the peak period of June, Shenzhen, second-hand housing prices rose by nearly the end of last year into about 8. The crazy real estate prices rose, on the one hand, accelerated investment in fixed assets throughout the country to promote the GDP continued to rise, on the other hand, their prices also induced conduction CPI rise, while breeding a large number of social problems.

AP Research Department of the property market experts believe that Shenzhen as the first half of the national real estate market leader, at the national policy of the second half of regulation, I am afraid will be the focus of attention, in fact, this month in 7-8 Shenzhen housing market has been introduced for a series of intensive control measures have been shown initial signs of a clue. At this point, the National Development and Reform Commission released a group of “significant” data, hidden behind the policy of regulation and control signals have been all too clear, the Shenzhen real estate market in the next few months will continue to face policy fear the cold.

Chinese version:房地产政策重点调控寒流 恐将“重点关照”深圳

根据国家发改委和国家统计局12日公布的最新调查资料显示，8月份，深圳房地产市场继续保持着高速上涨的态势，其中，一手住宅售价同比涨幅为17.6%，二手住宅售价同比涨幅为22%，继续领涨全国房地产市场。此消息一出即引起舆论一片哗然，因为这个数据与市民最近常在相关媒体上看到的“8月深圳楼市低迷”的相关报道，似乎有较大出入，孰对孰错？记者昨天采访了美联物业市场研究部有关专家。

统计口径各有不同

国家发改委公布的调查数据，其权威性自然勿庸置疑，但就此判断媒体有意误导消费者，这位专家认为亦有失公允。首先，媒体的数据绝大部分来源于深圳的大型房产中介公司，而中介公司又主要依据自己的交易情况进行判断，譬如，根据美联物业的统计数据，8月份深圳二手住宅均价为17011元/平方米，环比下降约2.5%，比6月份下降了6%，从这组数据看，深圳二手住宅价格走势已经结束上半年疯狂上涨的局面，总体上处于一个稳中有降的阶段。发改委的数据主要是通过按类别抽样调查然后进行加权平均的方法计算而得，和中介公司发布的数据在来源和统计口径上均不相同，所以结果略有出入自然在所难免。其次，我们要注意，国家发改委公布的8月份深圳二手住宅22%的涨幅是同比数据，而非环比数据，从发改委的环比数据看，深圳8月份二手住宅环比上涨1.7%，与深圳中介公司发布的数据出入并不大。此外，8月份深圳二手住宅市场整体交易清淡，全市二手住宅成交量环比下降约5成左右，在市场整体交易量较低的情况下，通过抽样调查所得的数据受成交个案和成交结构的影响较大，难以反映市场整体的真实变动情况，即便出现与市场走势背离的调查结果亦不足为奇。对消费者而言，无论是中介的成交数据还是国家发改委的调查数据，都只能作为购房的一个参考依据而已，不能视作判断市场走势的唯一准绳。

经济过热指标双双亮红灯

该专家表示，其实，争论发改委和中介公司的数据谁更准确并没有太大的实际意义，但发改委发布的任何数据都决不会无的放矢，特别是在现在深圳房产市场进退维谷之际，发布这样一份注定要引发无数争议的数据，其背后的政策警示意义耐人寻味。

据11日国家统计局发布的最新CPI统计数据，8月份全国居民消费价格指数再创新高，同比涨幅为6.5%。自今年3月份始，CPI指数已连续6个月突破3%的警戒线，并呈现出加速上涨的趋势。联系此前国家统计局公布的上半年11.5%的GDP同比涨幅，反映宏观经济运行健康程度的两大指标同时亮出了红灯，说明现在中国整体经济过热的迹象已经相当明显了。

央行和国家统计局共同完成的“全国银行家问卷调查”和“企业家问卷调查”显示，2季度银行家信心指数大幅走低，降至36.7%的历史最低水平，企业家信心指数亦回落至两年来的最低水平。

下半年政策恐将”重点关照“深圳

07年上半年以来，全国房产市场狼烟四起，各大城市房产价格均一路飙升，其中尤以深圳表现最为抢眼，据美联物业市场研究部数据分析，6月份最高峰时期，深圳二手房价格比去年年底涨了近8成左右。房地产价格的疯狂上涨，一方面加速了全国各地的固定资产投资，推动GDP持续上涨，另一方面，其价格传导作用又诱发了CPI的上涨，同时滋生出大量的社会问题。

美联物业市场研究部专家认为，深圳作为上半年全国房地产市场的领头羊，在国家下半年的政策调控中恐怕会被重点关照，其实，这在7、8月份以来针对深圳房产市场出台的一系列密集的调控措施中已经初见端倪。此时，国家发改委发布这样一组“意味深长”的数据，其背后暗藏的政策调控信号已经昭然若揭，深圳房产市场在未来的几个月内恐将继续面对政策寒流。

2007-09-20